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IID를 넘어서: 표 형식 기반 모델은 실제로 얼마나 일반적인가?
IID를 넘어서: 표 형식 기반 모델은 실제로 얼마나 일반적인가?
Lennart Purucker Andrej Tschalzev Nick Erickson Gioia Blayer David Holzmüller Alan Arazi Alexander Pfefferle Mustafa Tajjar Gaël Varoquaux Frank Hutter
초록
표 형식 데이터에 대한 예측 기계 학습을 위한 기반 모델이 최근 학계와 산업계에서 큰 주목을 받고 있다. 여러 분야의 연구 커뮤니티가 다양한 데이터셋과 작업에서 표 형식 기반 모델을 평가하고 있지만, 이러한 작업 및 분야별 평가는 벤치마크 소프트웨어와 평가 프로토콜이 파편화되어 있어 모델 연구자들이 접근하기 어렵다. 그 결과, 모델 연구자들은 표 형식 기반 모델이 이미 뛰어난 성능을 보이는 작업 위주로 정의된 표준 벤치마크에 의존하게 된다. 가장 도전적인 시나리오는 배제되어, IID 데이터에서의 미미한 개선에 초점을 맞추게 되고 더 광범위하고 까다로운 과제로의 의미 있는 진전이 제한된다. 이를 극복하기 위해 우리는 BeyondArena를 소개한다. 이는 다양한 작업 유형(IID, 시간적, 그룹화), 표본 크기와 특징 차원 규모, 다양한 특징 유형(텍스트 포함, 높은 카디널리티)을 여러 분야에 걸쳐 지원하는 최초의 통합적이고 포괄적인 표 형식 데이터 벤치마크이다. 표준 벤치마크를 넘어 통합된 평가를 가능하게 하기 위해, 예측 기계 학습용 표 형식 데이터셋을 큐레이션하는 파이썬 프레임워크이자 메타데이터 스키마인 DataFoundry를 소개한다. 11개 모델과 142개의 큐레이션된 데이터셋에 대한 결과는 기존 표 형식 기반 모델이 소규모에서 중간 규모의 IID 데이터에서는 뛰어나지만, 비IID, 대규모, 고차원 데이터셋에서는 전통적인 트리 기반 및 딥러닝 모델이 여전히 우세함을 보여준다. BeyondArena는 표 형식 데이터에서 가장 까다로운 과제를 위한 모델 연구를 안내하여 진정한 기반 표 형식 모델로의 진전을 가능하게 한다.
One-sentence Summary
Researchers from Prior Labs, University of Freiburg, INRIA Saclay, et al. introduce BeyondArena, the first unified benchmark for tabular data supporting IID, temporal, and grouped tasks, along with DataFoundry, a curation framework, and their evaluation across 11 models and 142 datasets shows that existing tabular foundation models excel only on small IID data while tree-based and deep learning models dominate on non-IID, large, and high-dimensional tasks, highlighting the need for truly general tabular AI.
Key Contributions
- BeyondArena is a unified benchmark consolidating IID, temporal, and grouped tabular tasks across dataset scales, feature dimensionalities, and modalities (text, high cardinality), providing standardized evaluation on 142 curated datasets from multiple disciplines.
- DataFoundry is a Python framework and metadata schema for reproducible dataset curation, enabling consistent preprocessing, validation, and benchmarking across task paradigms.
- Evaluating 11 models shows that tabular foundation models excel on small- to medium-sized IID data but are outperformed by tree-based and deep learning methods on non-IID, large, and high-dimensional data, revealing critical gaps for future models.
Introduction
Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have been evaluated extensively, but the tabular research community has mostly restricted benchmarks to independent and identically distributed (IID) tasks, ignoring the grouped and temporal splits common in real-world predictive applications. Prior efforts also suffer from fragmentation, with separate infrastructures and standards for tiny, temporal, or text-rich tables, which confuses practitioners and slows progress. The authors introduce BeyondArena, a unified benchmark that spans IID, temporal, and grouped tasks across a wide range of sample sizes, dimensionality, and feature types (including high-cardinality categorical and text data). By curating 142 high-quality datasets and integrating 11 models into the open-source TabArena ecosystem, they provide a rigorous, standardized evaluation that reveals where current TFMs excel (small- to medium-scale IID data) and where traditional models still dominate (non-IID, large-scale, high-dimensional settings).
Dataset
The authors curate BeyondArena, a manually verified collection of 142 tabular datasets designed to reflect challenging real-world prediction tasks. The collection extends earlier benchmarks by including non-IID scenarios (temporal and grouped splits), datasets with fewer than 500 or more than 100,000 training samples, and tables containing text and date features.
Dataset composition and sources
- The initial pool of 1,128 candidates was drawn from 21 prior tabular benchmark studies, public repositories (UCI, OpenML, Hugging Face, Kaggle, Zindi, ASlib), and government websites.
- 304 datasets from 14 earlier TabArena benchmarks (both accepted and previously rejected) were re-evaluated.
- 7 non-IID or multimodal benchmarks (TabReD, TableShift, CARTE, TextTabBench, TabSTAR, AutoGluon Multimodal, and a string vectorizing benchmark) contributed additional candidates.
Key details for each dataset
- Selection rules: A dataset must be unique within the benchmark, contain at least 100 training samples, support a random, temporal, or grouped validation split, be explicitly published for classification or regression, represent a real application (not purely synthetic or vectorized images), and raise no obvious ethical concerns.
- Filtering outcome: After manual review, 142 datasets satisfied all criteria; the majority of rejected candidates were duplicates, lacked a real-world task, or were not originally designed for supervised prediction.
- Characteristics: The final collection spans tiny to large-scale datasets, includes diverse feature types (numerical, categorical, date, text), covers both classification and regression, and comes from varied application domains. The 142 data artifacts are hosted on Hugging Face.
How the paper uses the data
- Each dataset is processed through the DataFoundry framework, which unifies file formats (CSV, Parquet, Excel) and annotates feature types, target column, and metadata for group or time indices.
- The authors define a train-test split for every dataset – random, temporal, or grouped – according to the original task description. For very large datasets, subsampling is applied to keep training manageable while preserving the task’s predictive challenge.
- No explicit mixture ratios or cropping are used; instead, the curated datasets serve as an independent benchmark suite where each dataset is evaluated individually with its designated split and preprocessing.
- Feature engineering is applied only when necessary to align with the original task (e.g., as described in a paper or winning competition solution), and all processing steps are documented in reproducible Python notebooks.
Method
The authors aim to extend tabular benchmarking to better represent challenging real-world predictive machine learning applications. To achieve this, they overhaul selection criteria to support non-IID data (temporal and grouped), datasets with fewer than 500 or more than 100,000 training samples, and tabular data containing text and date features. To ensure high quality and representativeness, the authors opt for a labor-intensive manual curation process where all results are verified by humans, which is crucial for scientific rigor.
To enable extensive and reproducible dataset curation, the authors introduce DataFoundry, a Python framework and metadata schema for tabular datasets and predictive machine learning. DataFoundry provides a mature Python package for dataset checks, train-test splits, and an extensible metadata schema, alongside reproducible Python notebooks for processing each dataset.
The authors gather datasets from 21 tabular benchmark studies and public data repositories, including UCI Machine Learning Repository, OpenML, Hugging Face, Kaggle, and others. They re-evaluate datasets from prior benchmarks and collect from non-IID or multimodal tabular benchmarks.
A dataset must fulfill specific criteria to be included in BeyondArena: it must represent a unique predictive machine learning task, have at least 100 training samples to avoid few-shot tasks, support appropriate validation protocols such as random, temporal, or grouped splits, be published for predictive classification or regression, represent a real-world application problem, and raise no obvious ethical concerns.
The selection workflow is illustrated in the figure below:
Starting with 1128 datasets from various sources, the authors filter out duplicates, few-shot prediction tasks, non-predictive tasks, and datasets that do not represent real applications. This rigorous filtering results in 142 selected datasets ranging from tiny to large-scale, covering tabular IID and non-IID tasks.
Each selected dataset is thoroughly investigated and integrated into DataFoundry. The authors unify data formats and feature type annotations, including numbers, categorical, dates, and strings. They store necessary metadata for tasks and curation annotations in a machine-readable schema. Feature engineering is applied when necessary to create appropriate tasks.
The characteristics of the curated datasets are detailed in the following figure:
The datasets vary widely in size regarding rows, columns, and cells, as well as age and feature types such as numeric, categorical, binary, text, and date/time. They cover diverse problem types including binary classification, regression, and multiclass classification, along with various task types like IID, grouped, and temporal. The collection spans multiple sources and application domains, including medical and healthcare, business and marketing, finance, and biology.
Experiment
The BeyondArena benchmark evaluates 11 tabular models, including several tabular foundation models (TFMs), across diverse dataset characteristics like scale, dimensionality, task type, and feature types. While TFMs perform strongly on small, tiny, and IID datasets, they are consistently outperformed by well-tuned traditional models—especially deep networks such as RealMLP—on temporal, grouped, large-scale, high-dimensional, and high-cardinality tasks. Overall, TFMs can match or beat the best traditional model on 70% of datasets, but their pretrained generality falls short in many real-world non-IID regimes, illustrating the need for further development. Ablations confirm the importance of using appropriate non-IID splits and preprocessing, and show that post-hoc calibration generally improves log-loss performance.
Ablations confirm that BeyondArena's inner split choices (repeated 5-fold CV and non-IID splits) are robust, consistently improving average performance while maintaining ranking stability. Preprocessing decisions for grouped and text data have mixed effects: handling group indices for label-per-sample data heavily alters rankings, and using TF-IDF over Qwen3 embeddings for long text features yields large performance gains without disrupting model ordering. Post-hoc probability calibration nearly always beats the uncalibrated default, except for a few specific models. Replacing 8-fold CV with 5×5-fold CV improves performance across models while keeping rankings nearly unchanged (τ=0.93). Using non-IID inner splits instead of IID splits for temporal and grouped data achieves better average performance and leaves model ranks identical (τ=1.00). For label-per-sample grouped datasets, dropping index preprocessing substantially scrambles model rankings (τ=0.43), though BeyondArena's preprocessing still wins 71% of the time. On long text datasets, switching from Qwen3 embeddings to TF-IDF drastically improves predictive performance, with BeyondArena's Qwen3 setting winning only 6% of comparisons yet rankings remaining highly correlated (τ=0.89). Applying post-hoc probability calibration outperforms the no-calibration default in 82% of cases, but can negatively impact TabPFN-2.6 and RealMLP.
Ablation experiments confirm that BeyondArena's inner split strategies—repeated 5-fold cross-validation and non-IID splits—consistently boost average performance while keeping model rankings stable. Preprocessing decisions for grouped and text data have mixed effects: handling group indices is essential for label-per-sample datasets, and using TF-IDF instead of Qwen3 embeddings on long text features yields large predictive gains without disrupting model ordering. Post-hoc probability calibration nearly always outperforms the uncalibrated default, though it can negatively affect TabPFN-2.6 and RealMLP. Overall, the core design choices are robust, with calibration and careful preprocessing being key to performance without harming rank consistency.