America is entering a new economic era defined by “jobless growth,” according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. This trend, marked by strong GDP expansion alongside minimal job creation, is becoming the new normal—driven largely by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence in business operations. The warning comes from economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei, whose memo, spotted by Fortune, highlights a growing disconnect between economic output and employment. While the economy continues to grow, the labor market is struggling to keep pace. The growth is not fueled by rising employment but by productivity gains from AI, combined with a shrinking labor supply due to population aging and reduced immigration. This means that economic expansion is increasingly decoupled from job creation—especially for entry-level roles. Despite the widespread hype around AI replacing workers, there’s still little concrete evidence that mass displacement has occurred. Instead, the real impact may be more subtle: a shrinking pipeline of new jobs for newcomers. Job postings for entry-level positions have declined sharply compared to last year, even as the overall labor market remains active. This suggests that companies are not eliminating roles outright but are instead tightening access to the bottom rungs of employment—making it harder for recent graduates and job seekers to break in. This trend is deeply concerning. Senior roles require experience, which comes from years of on-the-job learning and mentorship. If companies continue to cut off access to junior positions, they risk creating a future talent shortage. The long-term consequence could be a hollowed-out workforce where there are no qualified candidates to step into leadership roles when current employees retire or move on. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the economy’s current resilience may be artificial. According to Deutsche Bank researchers, AI-driven spending is the only thing currently preventing a recession. Harvard economist Jason Furman noted that AI accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Yet, despite massive investments and optimistic projections, the promised productivity gains from AI have not yet materialized in any measurable way. The danger lies in overreliance on a technology that hasn’t proven its value at scale. If AI fails to deliver on its productivity promises, the economy could face a sharp correction—especially if companies have overleveraged on AI bets. History suggests that the full impact of transformative technologies on employment often becomes clear only during economic downturns. Goldman Sachs warns that the true cost of AI-driven joblessness may not be fully visible until the next recession hits. AI is undoubtedly going to reshape the economy. But whether that transformation leads to widespread prosperity or a deep structural crisis depends on how responsibly it’s adopted. Right now, the balance is tipping toward short-term gains at the expense of long-term stability—and that’s a gamble no one can afford to lose.