American Politicians Elaborate | Under the AI Arms Race, China and the United States Open up the World's Technological Landscape

By Super Neuro

On February 11, President Trump signed an executive order outlining the United States' artificial intelligence development initiative, which emphasized that the United States must and must achieve world leadership in the field of artificial intelligence.

As soon as he finished speaking, the big tech leaders in the United States began to complain: "You don't welcome talents from the United States, and you weaken the technology companies of other countries. What do you have to lead others?"

Trump signed the executive order less than a week before his second State of the Union address after taking office, which shows how important it is. In his State of the Union address, he also talked about working with members of Congress to develop an infrastructure plan and invest in future cutting-edge industries.

Trump stressed that this is not an option, but a must. Trump is preparing a series of executive orders aimed at improving the overall competitiveness of the United States in key technology fields including AI, 5G and quantum computing. 

Yet many in the tech community believe that continued U.S. leadership in AI is far from certain.

Prediction: China will surpass the United States in all aspects in a few years

In 2018, China surpassed the United States in terms of investment in artificial intelligence startups, and even nearly 50% of investment funds in artificial intelligence went to Chinese startups.

While the U.S. still leads in terms of number of deals, the number of American AI startups has been steadily declining over the past few years. 

China is now also beginning to challenge the United States in terms of the number of patents and papers published in the field of artificial intelligence. Granted, the quality of some of these papers may still lag behind that of the United States, but China has been catching up, and the pace of progress in the past few years has been simply staggering. 

Three major AI giants: China/US/others

Based on what we discussed above, we propose dividing the world into three main categories:The West, China and the rest of the world.Obviously, this breakdown is highly subjective, but we think it frames the conversation around AI policy in a useful way. 

Now let’s dive into the key factors that determine the global AI arms race that is currently unfolding. When thinking about any problem that can be solved using machine learning, there are three building blocks to consider:Data, talent and funding. 

1. Data

According to IDC's statistical report, there are now more than 5 billion consumers generating large amounts of data every day, and by 2025, this number will increase to 6 billion.

As data volumes increase, IoT devices will increasingly drive growth,It is now estimated that by 2025 more than 90 zettabytes(*) of data will be generated annually.

*Note: zettabytes is often translated as zettabytes or zettabytes, and is usually used to indicate the total capacity of a network hard disk or the storage capacity of a large-capacity storage medium. 1 ZB=1024 PB 1PB=1024 EB, 1EB=1024 TB.

There are two key factors here: data collection and data usage. 

First, from the perspective of data collection, while the growth of global smartphones is slowing, the development of the Internet of Things is just beginning. As of 2018, there are at least 7 billion IoT devices, which will grow to 21.5 billion by 2025, exceeding the sum of all other categories.

Every person in society will be connected to dozens or even hundreds of smart devices in their lifetime, and everything from road traffic to apartment temperature may be recorded. As long as we are willing to share and store data, it can be used.

Secondly, it is about data usage. With increasing attention to privacy, there are more and more policies and opinions to restrict data collection and prevent abuse. However, in the current stage of machine learning, the protection of privacy will affect the amount of data that can be used to train the model.

In turn, this means that countries that don’t yet care much about privacy (following China’s example), for example, have begun to deploy large-scale security with AI-powered security cameras and have been successful in catching criminals, are gaining an advantage in terms of data. 

That being said, in other areas, such as autonomous driving or machine translation, Europe and the United States have better data sets, experimental space and regional policies.

2. Talent

People represent the second key resource because they are the ones who can instruct machines on how to solve problems.

The reality is different from what we see in the report:

European and American countries, especially the United States, have a natural talent advantage because it is still one of the most ideal places to work and live, and it is easier to attract talents from all over the world. An open, inclusive and creative living environment is conducive to discovering and cultivating innovative ideas. 

In terms of basic research, the United States also has the largest system of mature research universities in the world.

But in recent years, China has built a first-rate system of research universities and continues to invest aggressively. It has accelerated the training of talent in the natural sciences and engineering, and publishes more papers in journals than the United States.

Although the United States has a greater lead in research in certain specific fields, when it comes to the transformation of research results into practice, it is far behind China in terms of speed.

Our metrics for translational efficiency of research results are: the number of AI startups established in each country and the number of engineers joining the field. 

The United States has the largest number of startups, also because of the existing ecosystem that has been established through investments by large technology companies such as Google, Microsoft and Facebook.

However, China ranks second here, which is also the result of Chinese technology giants accelerating their investment in artificial intelligence companies.

If Europe is considered as a whole, it ranks third.

3. Investment

According to CB Insights, investment in Chinese startups accounted for 50% of global AI startup investment in 2017, an increase of 11.6% compared to 2016.

In 2018, the two companies with the highest funding amounts, SenseTime and Face++, were both from China. In terms of early-stage investment, China is ahead of all competitors today.

It is clear that both countries are equally well-positioned in terms of the amount of funding available, the robustness of the ecosystem, and the availability of opportunities in multiple areas.

Although President Trump announced his American AI Initiative, it seems that the development pattern of artificial intelligence has almost been determined.

Let’s try to use the strategic investment model to evaluate the feasibility of Trump’s American Artificial Intelligence Initiative.

• First, consider the overall size of the project and assess the likelihood that they will achieve their milestones.
• Secondly, consider the growth cycle of the project and the efficiency of the use of funds for the project at the current stage;
• Finally, determine the strategic focus of the project and whether it targets key areas that are likely to generate the best returns, producing steady growth.

Now, applying this framework to assess President Trump’s AI strategy, it’s safe to conclude:Given that the American AI Initiative is so vague and generic in its wording, this Trump initiative doesn’t really change anything.

Conclusion: Trump is unreliable

Many people believe that artificial intelligence is a new arms race. Countries are competing fiercely in hardware, software and corporate implementation. We believe that cooperation in artificial intelligence can bring better results for everyone.

Interestingly, European and American countries in particular are more likely to benefit from global cooperation than from independent development over the past fifty years, because thinking and creativity are freer in a way that has historically made the United States a magnet for talent.

A sustainable path to AI development in the United States may rely on:Focus on promoting global collaboration, including from researchers and companies in places like China, to invest in developing AI, while being careful not to impose restrictions on corporate initiatives.

The role of the U.S. government should therefore be focused on helping to build a more collaborative business environment rather than trying to impose unnecessary restrictions that stifle innovation and collaboration.