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Michael Burry warnt vor AI-Blase in neuem Blog

Michael Burry, the investor famed for foreseeing the 2008 housing crisis in The Big Short, has shifted his focus from hedge fund management to content creation with the launch of his Substack blog, Cassandra Unchained. The platform, now his sole professional endeavor, positions him as a lone prophet of market truths, echoing the mythological Cassandra who foresaw disaster but was never believed. Burry’s debut posts delve into historical market patterns, drawing parallels between the dot-com bubble and today’s AI boom. In “Foundations: My 1999 (and part of 2000),” he reflects on his early days as a neurology resident at Stanford, where he began studying value investing in the evenings—a journey that foreshadowed his future role as a contrarian thinker. His second post, “The Cardinal Sign of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony,” directly targets the current AI frenzy, labeling it a “glorious folly.” He challenges the common narrative that today’s tech giants are fundamentally different from the dot-com era by pointing out that the Nasdaq in 2000 was driven by highly profitable firms like Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Cisco—what he calls the “Four Horsemen.” Despite their profitability, he argues, the bubble formed due to catastrophic overcapacity and insufficient demand. He warns that the same dynamic is repeating today, with the “five public horsemen” of AI—Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle—alongside startups like OpenAI, fueling a speculative frenzy. Nvidia, he contends, plays the role of Cisco in this cycle: a central enabler whose soaring valuation may be unsustainable. Citing Cisco’s 78% plunge during the dot-com crash, Burry underscores the danger of overinvestment in infrastructure without proportional demand. His cautionary tone is underscored by a quote from Charlie Munger: “If you go around popping a lot of balloons, you are not going to be the most popular fellow in the room.” Burry’s return to public discourse comes after shuttering Scion Asset Management’s SEC registration and closing it to outside investors. His comeback on X (formerly Twitter) in late October, marked by a cryptic message hinting at the AI boom as a bubble and the “only winning move is not to play,” signaled a renewed commitment to warning investors about systemic risks. Industry observers view Burry’s pivot as both a strategic shift and a timely intervention. His reputation as a disciplined value investor with a knack for spotting systemic overvaluation lends credibility to his critique. Analysts note that while AI’s transformative potential is real, the pace of capital deployment—especially in semiconductor and cloud infrastructure—mirrors the reckless expansion of the late 1990s. His emphasis on supply-side excess resonates with economists concerned about inflationary pressures and diminishing returns on tech spending. Though some dismiss his warnings as overly pessimistic, others see him as a necessary counterbalance to market euphoria. Burry’s firm, Scion, once managed over $2 billion in assets and was known for its rigorous research and contrarian stance. His new Substack, while paywalled, may become a key source of independent market analysis, especially as AI investment continues to surge. As the market grapples with the sustainability of tech valuations, Burry’s voice—once again in the spotlight—may prove as influential as it was in 2007.

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Michael Burry warnt vor AI-Blase in neuem Blog | Aktuelle Beiträge | HyperAI