For much of 2025, the U.S. job market was characterized as "no hire, no fire"—a period when companies were not hiring new workers, but also not laying off existing employees, offering a rare sense of stability. However, that balance may be ending, as major corporations including Amazon, UPS, and Target announce sweeping layoffs, signaling a potential shift in the labor market. Amazon recently revealed plans to cut 14,000 jobs, citing its strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence and automation. UPS followed suit, announcing it has reduced its workforce by 48,000 over the past year. Target also disclosed plans to lay off more than 800 workers in Minnesota as part of a broader restructuring, bringing its global workforce reduction to about 8%—a move that includes cutting 1,800 corporate roles. These announcements come amid growing concerns about weakening hiring momentum. The Federal Reserve, which recently made its first interest-rate cut of 2025, cited slowing job growth as a key factor. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution over the labor market’s health, and recent layoffs appear to validate those concerns. John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, called the wave of job cuts a definitive sign that the “no hire, no fire” era is over. He noted these are large-scale reductions typical of major economic transitions. Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows employers have eliminated nearly 950,000 jobs through September—more than any year since 2020. Although official federal employment reports remain unavailable due to the ongoing government shutdown, private indicators paint a troubling picture. The ADP National Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. Recent state-level data also reveals rising unemployment claims, including over 10,000 from federal employees in the week ending October 18, reflecting the impact of congressional gridlock. Despite these developments, the national unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%—up slightly from 4.2% in July. Experts caution that while the overall rate may not spike dramatically, the combination of shrinking job openings and large-scale layoffs means displaced workers could face prolonged unemployment. Andy Stettner of the Century Foundation noted that the current situation is particularly challenging because job seekers are entering a market with fewer opportunities. Long-term unemployment—defined as joblessness lasting over six months—is expected to rise, reaching nearly 2 million in August, the highest level since 2022. Several factors are driving these layoffs. AI and automation are reshaping industries, with Amazon citing advancements in robotics and AI as reasons for workforce reductions. A recent Indeed study found that about one-quarter of tech workers reported losing their jobs or roles due to AI adoption in the past two years. Other companies are cutting jobs due to economic pressures. UPS blamed tariffs imposed under the Trump administration and declining shipments from Amazon, its largest customer, as Amazon expands its own delivery network. Meanwhile, Carter’s announced the elimination of 300 jobs and the closure of 150 stores, citing rising costs from import tariffs. Despite these challenges, Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about job prospects. A CBS News poll found that 52% now describe the labor market as “bad”—a seven-point increase from April. Experts warn that job security may no longer be guaranteed. As Challenger put it, “We are moving more into a time where job security might be more precarious.”