Amazon set to profit more from Anthropic IPO than VCs

Anthropic’s public listing is expected to generate large returns for many investors, but its strategic partners appear positioned to benefit the most. According to Anthropic’s S-1, venture capital firms including Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures and Spark Capital are set to earn billions, yet none of them reaches the 5% ownership threshold normally required for inclusion in the principal stockholders’ table. That reflects the company’s extraordinary scale: at a private valuation of $965 billion, even a multibillion-dollar position represents a small percentage of the company. Menlo Ventures’ reported $14 billion stake, for example, equates to roughly 1.5%. Amazon, by contrast, has become the IPO’s most significant financial beneficiary through a combination of equity-like instruments and strategic cloud commitments. Amazon first committed up to $4 billion to Anthropic in 2023 and subsequently invested further billions, much of it through convertible notes rather than direct stock purchases. As of June 30, Anthropic reported $6.2 billion in outstanding convertible notes principal held by Amazon, representing the company’s entire debt load. Those notes have appreciated sharply as Anthropic’s valuation climbed, with Amazon’s filings valuing its note holdings at $97.9 billion. Anthropic recorded the resulting non-cash fair value adjustment at $72.4 billion in the first half of 2026. The convertible notes could theoretically convert into as many as 1.84 billion shares, though a cap limits Amazon to 12% of Anthropic’s partially diluted share count unless Amazon waives the restriction. Unconverted notes would remain outstanding and convert in later quarters under the same limit. Amazon has also invested an additional $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock during the second quarter, taking $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds. Including about $8 billion invested in notes from 2023 through 2025, Amazon’s total investment stands at roughly $18 billion. Beyond its ownership position, Amazon is set to gain further from a long-term cloud arrangement under which Anthropic has committed to spend at least $110 billion with AWS over the next decade. Google is also expected to benefit substantially. Court filings reported by The New York Times indicated that Google held about 14% of Anthropic as of early last year, though later fundraising likely diluted that position to an estimated 5.6%. Google has continued investing, including a $10 billion commitment in April, and has secured cloud commitments from Anthropic worth at least $114 billion through 2033. The overall picture shows that while venture investors are poised for major paydays, Anthropic’s largest early backers and cloud partners may capture the greatest value. The S-1 also notes that some cloud providers backing Anthropic are themselves developing competing AI models, creating a relationship in which Anthropic’s success, dependence and strategic options are intertwined with those of much larger technology companies.