SpaceX skeptics worry as Musk's comments diverge from IPO filing
SpaceX faces growing scrutiny ahead of its initial public offering after CEO Elon Musk made statements on social media that contradict key details in the company's recent IPO prospectus. Days before the company begins pitching to investors, Musk posted on X that a deal with AI startup Anthropic is a 180-day lease with a 90-day mutual cancellation notice. This description clashes with the company's 300-page filing, which stated that Anthropic agreed to a long-term arrangement paying $1.25 billion monthly through May 2029. The discrepancy raises serious concerns for prospective investors regarding the stability of SpaceX's revenue. While the filing suggests the agreement could generate roughly $15 billion annually for years, Musk's comments imply the deal could terminate within months. This distinction is critical as SpaceX's total revenue in 2025 was only $18.7 billion. The company aims to monetize its unused compute capacity at the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee, entering a competitive market against neocloud providers like Nebius and CoreWeave. Analysts note that backing a company valued over $1 trillion that burns billions of dollars quarterly requires absolute clarity on financial commitments. Eric Talley, a corporate governance expert at Columbia Law School, highlighted the severity of the issue. He noted that the contradiction implies either the company's filing is materially misleading or Musk is providing inconsistent information, leaving investors uncertain about how to value the business. Both SpaceX and Anthropic declined to comment on the matter. Critics point out that the Anthropic discrepancy is not the only omission in the prospectus. Franco Granda, an analyst at PitchBook, identified missing disclosures regarding subscriber churn, the unit economics of the Falcon 9 rocket, and specific details on the utilization of the company's AI compute infrastructure. The AI segment, rebranded as SpaceXAI, recorded a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of this year, with capital expenditures for AI doubling to $7.7 billion. Despite these challenges, some investors remain optimistic about the company's ability to pivot toward profitability through infrastructure leasing. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest previously praised the deal with Anthropic as a strategic move to turn massive AI losses into significant revenue. However, Musk's recent post acknowledging that SpaceX might reclaim the compute capacity if needed adds uncertainty to those projections. Legal experts suggest that as SpaceX files amendments to its S-1 before the offering, it should formally address the tweet to reconcile the differences with the SEC.
