Analysts and investors remain deeply divided over OpenAI’s path to profitability, as the company pursues an aggressive growth strategy fueled by massive spending and a potential $100 billion fundraising round—the largest in history. Despite its rapid rise, with $13 billion in revenue and a user base that hit 100 million in just two months, OpenAI’s financial model is under intense scrutiny. Critics argue the company is burning through cash at an unsustainable rate. Deutsche Bank estimates OpenAI will lose $143 billion between 2024 and 2029, while HSBC projects a $207 billion shortfall by 2030. Some investors, like Charles Jaskel of New Vintage Partners, see no clear path to near-term profitability and have opted out of the latest funding round. Others, like former Fidelity manager George Noble, have labeled OpenAI a “cash incinerator” on social media. Sebastian Mallaby warned in a New York Times op-ed that the company could run out of money within 18 months. The core of the concern lies in OpenAI’s massive capital expenditures, particularly for compute power. The company has committed to over 30 gigawatts of processing capacity—nearly a third of global industry usage last year. CEO Sam Altman has told journalists that OpenAI may spend trillions on data center construction in the coming years. Microsoft, OpenAI’s key partner, has seen nearly half of its cloud backlog tied to the startup, and concerns over OpenAI’s financial health contributed to a $440 billion drop in Microsoft’s market value. Still, supporters argue that this spending is strategic and necessary. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has emphasized that compute is the scarcest resource in AI and that securing capacity is critical for scaling services. Ethan Choi of Khosla Ventures notes that while Altman cited $1.4 trillion in obligations, only about $600 billion would be spent directly by OpenAI—much of the rest would be covered by partners building data centers. Choi believes OpenAI could generate $140 billion in annual revenue within three years based on its projected 14 gigawatts of compute, assuming a $10 billion revenue per gigawatt benchmark seen at rival Anthropic. Despite its early dominance, OpenAI faces mounting competition. Google’s Gemini is gaining ground in consumer use, while Anthropic has captured enterprise interest with its Claude models, particularly among developers. OpenAI’s own Codex has failed to generate the same enthusiasm. Meanwhile, open-source models from China are advancing rapidly at a fraction of the cost, narrowing OpenAI’s technological edge. Internal shifts have also raised questions. After a “Code Red” memo in December urging focus on ChatGPT, the company has since expanded into search, e-commerce, adult content, robotics, and hardware development—including a rumored personal device with Apple’s former design chief. These moves signal ambition but also risk distraction. With multiple AI startups, including Anthropic and xAI, reportedly preparing for IPOs, OpenAI may be under pressure to go public later this year. While an IPO could unlock deeper capital, it would also bring public scrutiny, quarterly earnings expectations, and the need to demonstrate a credible path to profitability. As investor Steve Brotman put it, “At this valuation, a lot of things need to go right.” Altman himself has acknowledged the stakes: “Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money… and a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money.” The market will soon decide which side wins.