Elon Musk on AI's inflation risks: Right and wrong
Elon Musk recently proposed that the federal government implement a universal high income to address potential job losses from artificial intelligence and robotics. He argued that this policy would not trigger inflation because AI-driven automation would drastically increase the supply of goods and services, outpacing any increase in the money supply. According to Musk, the resulting surge in productivity would push prices down, effectively offsetting the inflationary pressure of injecting cash into the economy. Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan, offered a nuanced analysis of this position. Acknowledging the logic behind Musk's claim, Hanke noted that strictly applying the quantity theory of money suggests that such a scenario could indeed lead to deflation rather than inflation. However, Hanke cautioned that history indicates a lack of guaranteed correlation between economic growth and price stability. He pointed out that between 1866 and 1897, the United States experienced high productivity and growth alongside secular deflation. Conversely, from 1897 to 1914, the nation saw similar economic booms accompanied by rising inflation. These historical patterns demonstrate that growth rates and price changes can be independent, meaning an AI-fueled boom does not automatically prevent inflation. Hanke also remarked on the credibility Musk possesses regarding his futuristic predictions. He suggested that if similar statements about aging, which Musk recently called a solvable problem, were made by a less prominent figure, they would likely be dismissed as delusional. Musk has gone so far as to declare that saving for retirement will soon become irrelevant in a future of abundance, urging people not to worry about setting aside funds for the distant future. To assess the current reality against such grand visions, Hanke published his Annual Misery Index, which ranks countries based on a combination of unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and real GDP per capita. The index measures the economic hardship faced by citizens in each nation. In the latest ranking, the United States placed 119th out of 178 countries. While this positions the US as less miserable than nations like Cameroon, it also places it behind more affluent countries like Norway, Australia, and Taiwan, which topped the list as the happiest places. This data highlights the significant gap between Musk's optimistic long-term outlook and the present-day economic conditions experienced by the average American.
