Warren Buffett’s Alphabet Bet Signals Confidence Amid Warnings of US Debt and Dollar Decline, Says Veteran Investor Tom Russo
Veteran investor Tom Russo, managing member of Gardner Russo & Quinn, says he’s more concerned about the long-term risks posed by soaring U.S. debt and a weakening dollar than a potential crash in AI stocks. His firm’s latest portfolio filings reveal a significant bet on Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which now ranks as one of its top two holdings alongside Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Alphabet’s stock has surged nearly 40% in the three months ending September 30, rising from under $180 to $244, and has climbed another 17% since, surpassing $285. Berkshire Hathaway’s recent purchase of 17.8 million shares, valued at $4.3 billion as of September 30, marks a notable shift for Buffett, who has historically avoided technology stocks. Russo believes Berkshire may have acquired the stake earlier in the quarter, possibly at a cost of around $3.1 billion, now worth about $5.1 billion. Despite the rally, Russo argues Alphabet still trades at a "below-market" price-to-earnings ratio, calling it a "remarkably solid and strong business." He credits the company’s long-term vision, including its willingness to make big, unprofitable investments in R&D and moonshot projects like Waymo, DeepMind, and AI models such as Gemini. Unlike many firms pressured to deliver quarterly earnings growth, Alphabet has shown a capacity to "suffer" in the short term for long-term gains, a trait Russo and his team value highly. He also points to Alphabet’s massive cash reserves—similar to Berkshire’s—fueled by its dominant ad business and growing AI capabilities. These resources could help the company maintain its edge and deliver outsized returns, even as it plans to spend over $90 billion in capital in 2025. Still, Russo acknowledges risks. The success of Alphabet’s massive AI investments is not guaranteed, and the era of its extraordinary search ad margins may be ending, even with AI enhancements. He also notes that the company is often mislabeled as just a tech firm, when in reality, it plays a vital role in helping businesses target customers with precision, making it deeply embedded in global commerce. Beyond Alphabet, Russo warns that the U.S. national debt—now over $38 trillion, nearly double what it was a decade ago—poses a far greater threat than any AI market correction. The growing burden of servicing that debt, combined with rising doubts about the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, could trigger serious financial disruption. He sees the most dangerous risks not in tech stocks, but in bond and currency markets, where geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts could undermine confidence in U.S. financial stability. A retreat from global leadership, he cautions, could hurt living standards and destabilize the world order. “Never should somebody give their consumer the opportunity, the incentive to look elsewhere for satisfaction,” Russo said, paraphrasing Charlie Munger. The lesson, he implies, is not just about investing—but about preserving national strength and trust in the economy.
