Sorghum May Replace Corn to Bolster Climate Adaptation in Europe

Recent research conducted by INRAE and AgroParisTech and published in Earth's Future indicates that sorghum presents a viable, climate-resilient alternative to maize for European livestock feed. With European corn yields reaching relative all-time lows and the crop consuming 38 percent of France's irrigated cropland, agriculture is under increasing pressure to adapt to rising temperatures and water scarcity. Currently, sorghum occupies merely 0.1 percent of European cropland, despite dominating global production in Africa and the United States. To evaluate sorghum's potential across the continent, researchers developed a machine-learning model trained on historical yield data and integrated with twenty climate scenarios derived from five distinct climate models. The simulations project trends through the mid- and late twenty-first century, specifically targeting the 2050 to 2100 timeframe. The findings reveal that climate change will yield a net positive effect on European sorghum production. While northern regions are expected to see significant yield increases, southern Europe may experience modest declines. Overall mean production is projected to rise from three metric tons per hectare under current conditions to between 3.4 and 3.8 metric tons per hectare by the end of the century. Furthermore, areas capable of sustaining high and stable yields are anticipated to expand from 22 percent of European cropland to between 29 and 34 percent. If implemented on a rotational basis, such as one year out of three, sorghum could potentially replace approximately 90 percent of the corn currently utilized in European livestock feed. The crop's inherent tolerance to heat and drought makes it particularly suited for arid environments, offering a strategic solution to water resource management. Transitioning from maize to sorghum would substantially reduce irrigation demands, allowing saved water to support other essential crops and enhance regional feed self-sufficiency. This shift is projected to be especially beneficial in France, where water conservation could mitigate agricultural vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the study underscores sorghum's capacity to strengthen European agricultural resilience against climate change while maintaining robust livestock feed supplies.