The Phenomenal "Avengers 4" Is Predicted to Set a Record in Film History With a Box Office of 3 Billion US Dollars

Use data mining, machine learning, natural language processing and other methods to predict movie box office, providing reference and guidance for producers, distributors, investors and theaters.

The Avengers have reached their final battle.

The fact that the film was first released in China also made many European and American fans cry, and the premiere on Wednesday morning was so hard to get a ticket that even a high-priced ticket was hard to get. Some die-hard fans even spent hundreds of yuan to buy a ticket for 7 a.m. on Wednesday morning despite the pressure of getting up early...

Pre-sales are booming, and the final box office is predicted to be $3 billion

According to Maoyan Movie statistics, the pre-sale of "Avengers 4: Endgame" has exceeded 600 million as of today, and the number of viewers on the first day was nearly 3 million, breaking the pre-sale record in film history.

The highly anticipated "Avengers 4" is predicted to have a final box office of 3 billion US dollars. Marvel fans can't wait to join the heated discussion:

Previously, the final global box office of "Avengers 3" was amazing, exceeding 2 billion US dollars, ranking fourth in film history. Now the ending of Avengers seems to be very strong, and it may even surpass the previous one.

According to data from foreign professional box office prediction websites, the first weekend box office of "Avengers 4" will be as high as 250 million to 290 million US dollars. If it reaches the average value of 265 million US dollars, it will surpass its predecessor (257.7 million US dollars) and become the first weekend box office champion in North American film history.

Foreign netizens also predicted that the film would reach $1 billion in the first three days of its release, and that its final global box office would surpass the current No. 1 on the list, "Avatar" (final global box office of $2.787 billion).

Machine learning can predict box office results based on scripts 

When it comes to box office predictions, even the most experienced people would find it difficult to make an accurate prediction, after all, there are many factors involved. But if we leave it to artificial intelligence, there may be unexpected results.

Vault, an Israel-based AI company, isUsing analytics and algorithms to predict box officeOne of the latest players in the field. Since 2015, they have been working on using neural network algorithms for two years.We analyzed box office data from the past 30 years, nearly 400,000 scripts, movie budgets, overall audience numbers, and actor information.Used to estimate the box office revenue of a new movie in its first week of release.

Its founder and CEO David Stiff said that the company's 4CAST platform can analyze the box office potential of a movie based solely on the "core story DNA" collected from the original script or movie trailer.

He also said that now their AI system can predict movie box office with an accuracy of about 75%, which is very close to the actual box office. When the company was first established, the program's accuracy in predicting movie box office reached 65% to 70%.

That's according to Box Office Mojo, which had predicted the sci-fi thriller "Alien" would debut at $16.1 million, but it actually took in $12.5 million.

Another AI company called ScriptBook accurately "predicted" 22 of the 32 "box office poisons" released by Sony between 2015 and 2017.

ScriptBook is based on uploading a PDF file of your script into the system, and in a few minutes a detailed analysis of your project is generated, including:

Predict MPAA ratings, analyze their characteristics, detect protagonists and antagonists; assess the emotions of each character; predict the target audience, including gender and ethnicity; and, most importantly, make box office predictions.

The benchmarks are based on rapidly evolving machine learning, where the software is first taught by humans and then takes over the learning process, building large databases that are mined at an astonishing rate. ScriptBook’s software has been “trained” on a large dataset of 6,500 existing scripts, Ruelens said.

Who will be most affected by the accuracy of box office predictions?

By the way, are AI’s box office predictions reliable?

In general, box office prediction systems are mostly based on big data. A closer look reveals that machine learning predicts box office performance by relying on the analysis and integration of data, consumer behavior, script information, and other behaviors.

Therefore, unexpected factors, such as the popularity of "Dying to Survive" and the poor performance of "Blade Runner 2019", are difficult to control.

So, it is probably difficult to make an accurate prediction for "Avengers 4", which has a very tight plot secrecy. I wonder if the faith of Chinese Marvel fans will be taken into account when making the calculation.

Even so, box office forecasts still have great reference value for the film market.

It plays a guiding role in film creation. For example, the contribution of a certain leading actor to the box office of the film, whether it is necessary to shoot it in 3D, and the ending that the audience expects.

The film producers control the investment risk to a minimum by making corresponding adjustments to the film budget, production process, film content, release schedule, etc.

In addition, for distributors, it can optimize film distribution, marketing and other aspects reasonably, and avoid various unfavorable factors in the film operation process. For theaters, it can reasonably arrange the film schedule based on the prediction.

Guess what the final global box office of Avengers 4 will be? I bet $3 billion, what about you?