Tariff Changes May Boost Korean TV Brands in US Market, says Omdia; Shipments Expected to Decline by 2025, TrendForce Reports.

Omdia's latest research highlights significant shifts in the U.S. television market due to escalating geopolitical tensions and changes in tariff policies. According to the report, despite anticipated growth for American TV brands by 2025, Korean brands Samsung and LG are poised to reclaim more market share from Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL, primarily due to their large manufacturing capabilities in Mexico. In contrast, Hisense and TCL have limited production capacities in Mexico, making it difficult for them to avoid the high tariffs on imports from China, Vietnam, and Thailand. In April 2025, the U.S. announced tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, along with additional tariffs on products from Vietnam and Thailand. This policy has significantly disrupted supply chain strategies for TV manufacturers, leading many brands that planned to move production to Southeast Asia to reconsider and instead focus on expanding operations in Mexico. Under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), products meeting specific origin certification and regional value content requirements continue to enjoy tariff exemptions, further solidifying Mexico's position as a critical hub for TV manufacturing. Currently, 65% of TVs sold in the U.S. are produced in Mexico, enhancing the competitive edge of brands with established production facilities there. Hisense and TCL have paused their investments in Vietnam due to the new tariffs, hindering their global expansion, particularly in the low-end market segment of smaller and medium-sized TVs. Meanwhile, Samsung and LG are leveraging their Mexican factories to scale up production and capitalize on the market dynamics. Korean brands dominate the large-screen TV market (65 to 85/86 inches), while Chinese brands excel in the value-driven, smaller-to-medium size segment. As tariffs on smaller TVs increase, the cost advantage of Chinese brands diminishes, allowing Korean brands to potentially expand into this market niche. Other American brands that rely heavily on Asian supply chains, such as Vizio and Walmart’s own brand Onn, are also facing challenges. Onn had planned to assemble some of its TVs in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, but now finds itself at a disadvantage compared to Korean brands with robust Mexican production capabilities. This shift underscores the importance of local production and flexible supply chains in maintaining competitiveness. The display industry remains cautious about the market volatility caused by changing tariffs. Most companies are waiting for policy clarity before making substantial adjustments to their production setups. However, the impact of these changes is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the U.S. TV market, with brands having strong local production capabilities gaining an upper hand. Omdia's Display Panel and Supply Chain Research Director Deborah Yang commented, "Mexico's supply chain resources are becoming a key competitive advantage in the U.S. TV market. Samsung and LG are effectively utilizing these resources to expand capacity and protect profit margins." She noted that despite low profit margins in the TV industry, these Korean brands can add value through their Tizen and webOS platforms, enhancing their market position. Industry experts agree that the evolving tariff policies will have a lasting effect on the U.S. TV market. Brands with adaptable supply chains and significant local manufacturing presence are better positioned to thrive, while those dependent on overseas production, especially from Asia, face greater uncertainty. According to TrendForce, the mutual tariffs imposed by the U.S. are likely to lead TV brands to increase retail prices to offset higher costs, further straining consumer purchasing power. China's "trade-in" subsidy program, launched in late 2024, has already stimulated some demand, but its continued effectiveness in 2025 is uncertain. Consequently, TrendForce predicts a 0.7% decline in global TV shipments in 2025, reaching about 196.44 million units. To preempt the anticipated 25% increase in tariffs on imports from Mexico to the U.S., Samsung, LG, Hisense, and TCL increased their shipments to North America in late 2024. Despite the traditionally slow sales period in the first quarter of 2025, TV shipments for these brands were robust at 45.59 million units, marking a 6.1% year-over-year increase. Inventory levels in the U.S. market rose by three to four weeks during this time. The initial 301 tariffs implemented by the Trump administration in 2018, which raised rates from 3.9% to 11.4%, prompted many TV manufacturers to relocate production to countries like Vietnam. The recent mutual tariffs, announced in early April 2025, maintain exemptions for USMCA-compliant products, reducing pressure on Mexican-based manufacturers. Vietnam, now the world's second-largest TV manufacturing base, saw its tariff rate reduced to 10% after a 90-day delay from 46%. TrendForce expects that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the rush to import products before the grace period ends will boost global TV shipment volumes by 3.8% in the first half of 2025, totaling 94.18 million units. TCL and Hisense are projected to see shipment increases of 15% and 7%, respectively, while VIZIO, which focuses heavily on the U.S. market, may achieve a 20% growth in shipments. However, if brands fail to relocate their production lines to Mexico or similar locations by the end of the second quarter of 2025, they may face significant challenges. These brands might be forced to raise retail prices and curtail promotions, leading to potential market share losses. TrendForce warns of a "weak peak season" phenomenon in the second half of 2025, with global TV shipments expected to decline by 4.5%, totaling 102.27 million units. In China, the "trade-in" subsidy program continues to drive the adoption of Mini LED TVs, which offer energy efficiency benefits. Brands like TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi are leveraging their expertise in backlight design and supply chain optimization to promote these high-efficiency models. TrendForce forecasts that Mini LED TV shipments will grow by 50% in 2025, reaching 11.56 million units, with these brands capturing a combined 64% market share. OLED TVs, while expected to see moderate growth in 2025, face long-term challenges. Samsung has set a shipment target of 2.5 million OLED TVs, contributing to an estimated full-year OLED TV shipment total of 6.79 million units, a 7.1% increase from 2024. However, the high retail prices (three to four times that of Mini LED backlit LCD TVs), limited interest from Chinese brands, and constrained panel production capacity will likely cap OLED TV shipments between 6.5 million and 7 million units annually in the coming years. Industry insiders view the U.S. tariff policy as having a significant short-term impact on global TV markets, driving increased shipments for some brands. Long-term, the policy's unpredictability will force many companies to reassess their global production and supply chain strategies to manage potential cost increases. Omdia and TrendForce, both leading technology research firms, provide authoritative and valuable insights into these market trends. TrendForce, founded in 2000 and headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan, with branches in Shenzhen and Beijing, has more than two decades of experience and a substantial subscriber base. Its comprehensive coverage across semiconductor, display, photovoltaic, green energy, and ICT application research offers deep and actionable market analysis.