OpenAI is poised to launch an advertising business built around ChatGPT, and with the right strategy, it could grow into a $25 billion revenue stream by 2030, according to industry analysts. While the company is currently testing basic contextual ads—such as travel or baby product suggestions shown at the bottom of ChatGPT responses—experts say that to reach its full potential, OpenAI must evolve beyond simple placements and build a performance-driven, data-powered advertising platform. Right now, ad placements are limited to a small group of brands and users in the U.S., primarily on the free and $8-per-month Go tier. Examples include showing Expedia or Airbnb ads when a user asks about weekend getaways, or suggesting stroller brands to a new parent researching baby gear. These early efforts are seen as low-impact by advertising experts. Michael Cohen of Horizon Media called them "a fairly innocuous injection of ads" that lack the precision and performance of top-tier digital advertising. The real opportunity lies in leveraging OpenAI’s unique access to rich, conversational data. Unlike traditional search engines, ChatGPT captures the intent, context, and nuance behind user queries—what experts call "marketing and advertising gold." By connecting those natural language inputs to actual purchase behavior, OpenAI could deliver hyper-relevant, high-converting ads. But to compete with giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon, OpenAI must build a robust adtech infrastructure. Key among these is a conversion API—a system that allows advertisers to track whether a user clicked on an ad and completed a desired action, like making a purchase or signing up for a service. Without this, advertisers won’t trust the platform to deliver measurable results. Michael Komasinski, CEO of adtech firm Criteo, estimates that a basic contextual ad model could generate $1 to $2 billion in revenue by 2027. To scale toward $25 billion, OpenAI must expand beyond the ChatGPT app. Potential avenues include integrating ads into its AI video tool Sora, embedding sponsored product listings in its agentic commerce features, and monetizing its upcoming Atlas browser and AI hardware projects. Consumer trust remains a critical challenge. Users may be uncomfortable seeing ads in a space they’ve used for mental health support, creative brainstorming, or academic help. OpenAI has published "ads principles" stating that ads will be clearly labeled, separate from AI responses, and won’t influence the quality of the chat. It also insists user conversations remain private and won’t be shared with advertisers. Experts like Adam Edwards of Brainlabs believe users will accept the trade-off—free access in exchange for ads—as long as they’re clearly marked and don’t disrupt the experience. The key is transparency and maintaining the integrity of the AI’s responses. Leadership is also a factor. OpenAI recently appointed Vijaye Raji, a former Meta executive with deep experience in ad platforms, mobile apps, and product development, to lead its advertising team. His background in building ad systems at Meta makes him well-suited to scale the business. Still, many in the industry expect OpenAI to grow its ad team through both hiring and strategic acquisitions—particularly in areas like ad serving, bidding algorithms, and personalization engines. Ultimately, OpenAI’s ad future depends on turning conversational intelligence into a scalable, trustworthy, and performance-driven advertising ecosystem. If it can do that, the path to a $25 billion ad business becomes not just possible, but plausible.