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Supermicro Adjusts Fiscal 2026 Guidance Amid Hopper-to-Blackwell Transition Challenges

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, made waves when he claimed that the company's upcoming "Blackwell" GPU platforms would far surpass the performance of its current "Hopper" systems. Huang stated that Blackwell offered a 40x improvement in performance over Hopper, which led to significant market reactions. This bold statement prompted many of Supermicro's and Hewlett Packard Enterprise's customers to delay their purchases, pushing about $1 billion worth of AI system revenue from Supermicro’s March quarter to later quarters—some in June and others possibly extending to September. In response to these delays, Supermicro had to write down approximately $100 million of its Hopper inventory, according to stock analyst Nehal Chokshi from Northland Securities. David Weigan, Supermicro’s CFO, did not dispute this figure. As a result, Supermicro adjusted its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance downward to between $21.8 billion and $22.6 billion, a decrease from the previously projected range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion. This shift suggests that between $900 million and $3.2 billion in deals will spill over into fiscal year 2026, starting July 1, 2026. During a recent earnings call, Charles Liang, Supermicro’s founder and CEO, expressed confidence in the company’s mid-term and long-term growth, emphasizing the strong demand for Blackwell products and forthcoming total data center solutions. Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and the broader economy, Liang reaffirmed the company’s commitment to its roadmap, which includes the launch of "Rubin" R100 and R200 GPUs in the next year, followed by "Rubin Ultra" R300 GPUs in 2027. For the March quarter of fiscal year 2025, Supermicro reported nearly $4.6 billion in sales, marking a 19.5% increase from the previous year but a 19% decline from the preceding quarter. After accounting for Hopper writedowns, the company’s operating income was estimated at $146.8 million, with net income at $108.8 million. Subsystems sales amounted to $141 million, down 7.2% year-over-year, while systems sales reached $4.46 billion, up 20.6% compared to the same quarter last year. A significant 70.4% of Supermicro’s March quarter sales were attributed to GPU-powered AI systems. This segment, which includes enterprises along with the dominant hyperscalers and cloud builders, generated around $3.24 billion in revenue. Notably, this sum is comparable to Supermicro’s entire fiscal year 2018 revenue. The hyperscale and cloud builder segments, primarily located in the United States, saw a sharp 49.5% reduction in aggregate spending, totaling $1.66 billion. However, this amount still represents a 13.2% increase from the same period the previous year. Other customer categories contributed $2.94 billion in sales, reflecting a robust 23.3% year-over-year growth and a 22.6% sequential rise. Geographically, Supermicro's sales remained heavily concentrated in the United States, although European and Asian markets have seen significant growth. The two largest U.S.-based customers, who account for more than 10% of revenue each, cut their spending drastically, indicating a clear realignment with Nvidia's GPU roadmap. Despite this, these customers still increased their year-over-year spending by 13.2%. Smaller enterprise customers, government, and academic institutions represent additional revenue streams, while the edge and 5G segments have not yet gained much traction. Looking ahead, Supermicro expects AI systems to continue driving revenue, particularly as demand for distributed AI inference grows due to latency considerations. For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company anticipates sales of about $6 billion, bringing the total fiscal year 2025 sales to $22.2 billion. Of this, approximately $4.24 billion, or 71%, is projected to come from AI systems, with a net profit margin of around 6.8%. Supermicro's ability to adapt to market dynamics and manage its operations effectively has been commendable. The company maintains factories in the United States, the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Taiwan, which gives it a strategic advantage in navigating tariff issues. The Fremont, California facility alone can produce 5,000 racks monthly, with 2,000 of those being high-performance Nvidia GB200 NVL72 and GB300 NVL72 racks designed for advanced AI inference. As Supermicro ramps up production at its other facilities, it aims to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure and achieve its ambitious $40 billion annual sales target. Industry insiders view Supermicro’s current challenges as a temporary setback, attributing much of the revenue shift to the rapid pace of technological advancement in the AI sector. They believe that Supermicro’s strong partnerships with leading tech companies, coupled with its flexible manufacturing capabilities, position it well to meet future demand. Additionally, the company's focus on providing comprehensive data center solutions, rather than just hardware, is seen as a key differentiator that could further boost its market presence. Supermicro’s resilience and strategic foresight suggest that it remains a formidable player in the highly competitive server market.

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Supermicro Adjusts Fiscal 2026 Guidance Amid Hopper-to-Blackwell Transition Challenges | Trending Stories | HyperAI