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Apple and Google’s Search Deal Survives Antitrust Trial, Cementing Their Power in the AI Era

Silicon Valley’s most powerful alliance just got stronger. The recent antitrust ruling by Judge Amit Mehta has effectively cemented the long-standing partnership between Apple and Google, allowing Google’s multi-billion-dollar payments to Apple to continue. At the heart of this decision is Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of services, whose testimony during Google’s trial played a pivotal role. Cue argued that restricting Google’s ability to pay for default search status in Safari would be counterproductive and potentially harmful to innovation, especially as new AI-driven search competitors emerge. His concerns about Apple’s ability to invest in new products were echoed directly in the judge’s ruling. Mehta acknowledged that Google’s default payments give it an advantage in the search market but concluded that banning them would have severe consequences, particularly for Apple, which relies on the revenue—estimated at around 15% of Google’s annual profit—for product development and ecosystem growth. The judge also pointed to the rapid rise of generative AI companies like OpenAI and Perplexity as signs of genuine market competition, suggesting that superior AI-powered search tools could eventually challenge Google’s dominance. This reasoning, while optimistic, overlooks the reality that Google’s financial relationship with Apple has long been a key barrier to entry for rivals. For over two decades, Apple has benefited from Google’s payments—based on a share of ad revenue—while simultaneously locking down user access to the internet through its devices. This arrangement has not only enriched both companies but also solidified their control over digital discovery. Now, with the ruling in place, Apple and Google are poised to deepen their collaboration in the AI era. Just hours after the decision, reports surfaced that Apple is moving forward with integrating Google’s Gemini AI into its upcoming Siri-powered search engine. This partnership, long discussed but delayed due to regulatory concerns, is now legally viable. Apple gains access to a leading AI model without the need to acquire a competitor like Perplexity or Mistral, while Google secures prime distribution across Apple’s vast ecosystem of iPhones, iPads, and Macs. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s position grows more complicated. Its exclusive deal with Apple to power ChatGPT in iOS remains intact, but it lacks Google’s ad-driven revenue model to offer Apple a financial incentive. With no comparable payments, OpenAI faces an uphill battle in competing with Google’s deep pockets and strategic alignment with Apple. The broader implications are clear: the status quo remains intact. Apple and Google continue to reinforce each other’s dominance, now extending into the AI frontier. While new players may emerge, the financial and distribution advantages held by the two tech giants make meaningful disruption difficult. On a lighter note, OpenAI’s $10.3 billion employee tender offer—allowing eligible staff to sell shares worth up to $30 million—has sparked excitement, signaling the company’s continued growth and internal wealth creation. Meanwhile, leadership changes at OpenAI mirror the early days of Facebook, with former Facebook engineering leaders returning to key roles, further blurring the lines between Silicon Valley’s past and present. As the AI race heats up, the alliances shaping it are proving just as powerful as the technology itself.

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