Nvidia and OpenAI's Mega Deal Stalls Amid Tensions, Yet Mutual Dependence Remains Strong
Nvidia and OpenAI, once poised to seal a landmark $100 billion deal, remain stuck in negotiation limbo, with no formal agreement signed and no funds transferred five months after their high-profile announcement on CNBC in September. Despite the reported pause—described by the Wall Street Journal as negotiations being “on ice”—both companies continue to emphasize their deep interdependence, even as tensions surface over strategic direction and business model confidence. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has publicly downplayed any rift, telling CNBC’s Jim Cramer that there is “no drama” in the relationship and reaffirming Nvidia’s commitment to investing in OpenAI’s next funding round. He also expressed interest in participating in OpenAI’s upcoming initial public offering. Similarly, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman dismissed speculation of conflict on X, stating, “We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time,” and questioning the source of the “insanity” surrounding the stalled deal. The original $100 billion agreement, which included OpenAI building a massive infrastructure requiring 10 gigawatts of power, has seen little visible progress. Nvidia’s $10 billion initial investment is contingent on the first gigawatt of capacity being completed, with the first phase expected to come online in the second half of 2026. The lack of updates has fueled investor concern, especially as Nvidia’s stock has fallen 15% from its October peak, settling at a $4.4 trillion valuation. Despite the delays, the symbiotic relationship between the two remains undeniable. OpenAI relies heavily on Nvidia’s GPUs to power its AI models, with its entire compute fleet running on Nvidia hardware. As Sachin Katti, OpenAI’s infrastructure executive, emphasized on X, the demand for compute is growing exponentially and Nvidia remains central to that ecosystem. Nvidia’s own success is closely tied to OpenAI’s rise. Since ChatGPT’s launch in February 2023, Nvidia’s revenue has surged from $6 billion in a quarter to $57 billion in the most recent quarter—driven largely by AI demand. The company holds over 90% of the market for data center GPUs, the backbone of modern AI training. Yet, both companies are diversifying their partnerships. Nvidia has invested $10 billion in Anthropic and is expanding its customer base to reduce reliance on a few hyperscalers. Meanwhile, OpenAI has forged key alliances with AMD and Broadcom, signaling its intent to secure broader access to AI chip capacity. In June, Altman appeared alongside AMD CEO Lisa Su, announcing OpenAI’s role in helping develop AMD’s next-gen AI chips. Later, OpenAI partnered with Broadcom to design custom AI chips and announced a $10 billion deal with Cerebras, a startup specializing in AI-specific processors. These moves reflect a strategic effort by OpenAI to avoid overdependence on any single supplier, even as it continues to rely on Nvidia’s technology. For Nvidia, the challenge lies in maintaining its dominance while navigating a more competitive and fragmented chip landscape. Ultimately, while the $100 billion deal remains unsigned, the underlying relationship remains foundational. Both companies acknowledge that their success is intertwined—Nvidia needs OpenAI to drive demand for its chips, and OpenAI needs Nvidia’s hardware to scale its ambitions. The path forward may not be a single mega-deal, but a more complex, multi-partner ecosystem built on mutual necessity.
