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Goldman Sachs Warns AI Will Drive Job Cuts Despite Corporate Focus on Productivity Gains

AI adoption is rapidly transforming corporate America, with early signs of impact on white-collar jobs, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs. While companies continue to frame artificial intelligence as a driver of productivity and growth, the data suggests that workforce reductions are already beginning to take shape. The findings are based on a survey of 105 Goldman bankers who work with clients across industries. The report offers a rare inside look at how major U.S. corporations are implementing AI and what that means for their employees. Goldman’s analysis reveals that companies are primarily using AI to enhance productivity and generate revenue—rather than to cut costs. Nearly half of the banking clients surveyed said they are leveraging AI to drive business growth, compared to just one in five using it mainly for expense reduction. Despite this focus on growth, job cuts are already emerging. Only about 10% of firms have reduced headcount due to AI so far. However, nearly a third of bankers covering technology, media, and telecom clients have observed early signs of workforce pressure. Looking ahead, Goldman’s analysts forecast a 4% reduction in employment over the next year, followed by a more substantial 11% decline within three years. “The relatively fast increase in expected adoption and head count reductions over the next three years highlights that AI impacts on the US labor market could arrive sooner than expected,” the report’s authors, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, wrote. Customer support roles are most vulnerable, with 80% of bankers expecting AI-driven reductions as automation takes over routine inquiries and service tasks. Administrative support roles are also at risk, with 49% of respondents anticipating cuts. IT and engineering positions are not immune either. To manage these changes, about 55% of bankers expect companies to rely on hiring freezes or natural attrition, while 26% foresee layoffs or broader restructuring efforts. The report comes amid a wave of recent layoffs across the tech sector. Amazon recently eliminated 14,000 jobs, with CEO Andy Jassy citing cultural fit rather than AI or cost-cutting as the reason. Still, the timing underscores how technological shifts are reshaping hiring across industries. Goldman’s bankers note that adoption is accelerating rapidly. Thirty-seven percent of clients are already using AI in production workflows—far higher than the 9.9% adoption rate reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The firm projects that adoption will reach 50% next year and 74% within three years. Yet challenges remain. About 61% of bankers say their clients view AI as “too early a technology” for widespread deployment, and 47% report that firms lack the internal expertise to develop or integrate the right tools effectively. Still, the momentum is clear. “The relatively high current and expected adoption rates for US corporates and meaningful expected head count reductions support our long-standing view that AI is set to have a transformative impact on the labor market and economy,” the report concludes.

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