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OpenAI's Compute Dilemma: Why More Power Means More Risk and Reward

OpenAI is doubling down on its massive investments in computing power, with top executives warning that the company’s greatest risk may not be overspending, but falling behind in securing the resources needed to stay competitive. In a series of videos and a visual chart shared on X, OpenAI President Greg Brockman emphasized the company’s relentless need for more compute, even as it has already committed around $1.4 trillion to data center projects over the next eight years. “We want to be ahead of the curve,” Brockman said in a video posted on X. “And the truth is, I don’t think we will be, no matter how ambitious we can dream of being right now. I think demand will far exceed what we can think of.” The chart accompanying the message illustrates a clear cycle: more compute leads to better AI products, which drive more revenue, which in turn fuels further investment in compute. This cycle reflects a growing reality across the AI industry—access to computing power is now one of the most critical bottlenecks. Brockman noted that the availability of compute is often the single biggest obstacle to launching new products. He cited the March launch of OpenAI’s image generation tool as a case in point, explaining that the company had to divert compute resources from research to meet user demand, a move he described as “very painful.” Ronnie Chatterji, a senior economist in the Biden administration, echoed this urgency in a video released by OpenAI. “People are worried about whether people are trying to do too much,” Chatterji said. “I just encourage people to think about and consider, what if we're not moving fast enough? What if we're investing too little?” OpenAI is not alone in this mindset. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently stated that the biggest risk for his company is “probably in not being aggressive enough,” adding that even spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure would be a manageable cost compared to the consequences of falling behind. Similarly, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei highlighted the difficulty of making long-term compute bets years in advance. “I have to decide now, literally now, or in some cases a few months ago, how much compute I need to buy—to serve the models in early 2027 when I get to that revenue amount,” he said at The New York Times’ DealBook Summit. Amodei’s comments, which included a veiled critique of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman using the term “YOLOing,” underscored the high-stakes nature of these decisions. Unlike Meta, Google, and other tech giants with vast existing infrastructure and revenue streams, OpenAI operates with a more limited financial cushion, making the stakes of miscalculation even higher. The company’s CFO, Sarah Friar, recently sparked concern when she mentioned a “government backstop” for data center spending, a comment she later clarified. Altman responded on X, reiterating that OpenAI believes “taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad business decisions.” He added, “If we get it wrong, that's on us.”

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