Google's search dominance is facing scrutiny as paid clicks growth slows and rival AI services gain traction. On Wednesday, Apple’s senior vice president of services, Eddy Cue, made startling comments during Google's antitrust trial, revealing that Google searches through Safari dropped in April for the first time ever. This revelation triggered a frenzied sell-off in Google's stock, reflecting investor concerns about the tech giant's future control over the search market. In addition to Cue’s remarks, a key financial metric highlighted in Google’s latest SEC filing adds to the worries. Paid clicks, which refer to the number of times users click on ads across Google’s services like Search, Gmail, and Google Play, showed a mere 2% growth in the first quarter of 2025. This is a significant slowdown from the 5% growth reported in the same quarter the previous year and the lowest growth rate since the company began tracking this metric. Google has not provided a clear explanation for the decline in paid clicks. However, Bernstein analysts suggested that broader economic factors (macroeconomic conditions) or the improved efficiency of AI-driven search results, leading to fewer ad clicks per user, might be contributing factors. Despite Google’s assertion that it continues to see overall query growth, including an increase in total queries from Apple devices, these numbers indicate a potential shift in user behavior and search market dynamics. The statistics from research firm Statcounter further corroborate this trend. According to the firm, Google’s share of global search traffic decreased to 89.71% in March 2025, down from approximately 91% in March 2024 and 93% in March 2023. Competing search products, particularly those leveraging generative AI, are gaining ground. OpenAI reported that around 10% of the world's population uses ChatGPT, translating to at least 800 million users. Meta also mentioned that about 1 billion people use AI across its platforms. The rise of AI chatbots and generative tools is redefining the search landscape. These technologies offer quick, comprehensive answers to user queries, reducing the need for multiple searches and potentially diminishing the reliance on traditional search engines. Bernstein analysts estimated that AI-generated queries account for about 15% of the total queries processed by search engines, underscoring the growing influence of AI in the search market. This shift presents both opportunities and challenges for Google. While it can capitalize on AI advancements, it also faces intense competition from companies like OpenAI and Meta. Longtime Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo emphasized the potential threat to Google's advertising business, comparing the current situation to Yahoo’s decline in the 2000s due to competition from Google’s AdWords. However, not all analysts share this pessimistic view. Jefferies analysts described the significant sell-off in Google’s stock as “overblown.” They argued that while Apple’s Safari browser is important, it represents only a fraction of the overall search activity. Specifically, iOS comprises 18% of operating systems, and Safari holds 17% of the browser market share, compared to Chrome's dominant 66%. Jefferies believes that Google will eventually ramp up monetization of its AI features and that a complete shift by Apple away from Google’s search is unlikely to cause catastrophic harm. Google’s multi-billion dollar deal with Apple to maintain its status as the default search engine on Safari underscores the value it places on this partnership. However, the combined impact of slowing paid clicks, Cue’s testimony, and the surge in AI users suggests that the search giant’s market share might be lower than previously estimated. Bernstein analysts believe Google’s actual search share is between 65-70%, far below the commonly cited 90%. Industry insiders speculate that Google will need to adapt and innovate to maintain its dominance. The company’s ongoing investments in AI and its commitment to enhancing user experience through features like AI Overviews indicate its readiness to face the evolving market. Nonetheless, the competitive landscape is becoming increasingly crowded, and the pressure is mounting for Google to prove that it can continue to grow and evolve. Google’s strategic decisions in the coming months will be crucial in determining its position in the search market. While the immediate impact of these developments is alarming, the long-term outlook depends on how effectively Google can harness the power of AI and maintain its partnerships, particularly with Apple. In the meantime, the market remains divided on the severity of the threat. While some see the decline in paid clicks and reduced search share as ominous signs, others remain confident in Google’s ability to innovate and sustain its leadership. Google, known for its resilience and technological prowess, will need to navigate these challenges carefully to ensure its continued dominance in the rapidly changing search landscape.