OpenAI is surpassing its own revenue forecasts, accelerating its growth at a pace that exceeds even its most optimistic projections, according to analysts at Barclays. This momentum is reinforcing the ongoing AI investment supercycle, despite growing concerns about the sector’s capital intensity and potential market bubbles. In a new research note led by tech analyst Ross Sandler, Barclays highlighted that OpenAI’s revenue is currently running about 15% ahead of its 2025 targets and a striking 50% ahead of its 2027 projections. These figures are based on recent comments from CEO Sam Altman, who stated that OpenAI is on track to achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2027—approximately one year earlier than previously anticipated. The analysts attribute this outperformance to strong user growth, consistent conversion from free to paid users, and rapid expansion in OpenAI’s enterprise offerings and API business. The company’s application programming interface, which powers integrations across countless third-party apps and services, continues to see broad adoption, driving steady revenue growth. Barclays’ analysis suggests that for OpenAI to reach its $100 billion target, ChatGPT would need to grow to around 2 billion weekly active users by 2028. The actual revenue generated would depend on the percentage of these users who opt for paid subscriptions, but the potential is significant. Beyond subscriptions, the report highlights several emerging revenue streams. One is advertising on the free tier of ChatGPT, which could unlock new monetization opportunities. Another is the “Agents-as-a-Service” model—digital AI agents capable of performing complex tasks for businesses—which the analysts believe could become a major growth engine in the next two years. Additionally, OpenAI’s recently launched Instant Checkout feature, which allows users to make purchases directly within ChatGPT, introduces a new shopping referral fee revenue stream. This adds another layer to the company’s monetization strategy. The surge in revenue and user engagement is driving a massive increase in compute demand. Barclays projects that OpenAI’s total compute spending from 2024 to 2030 will exceed $450 billion, with total obligations reaching around $650 billion—some of which extend beyond 2030. Despite concerns about escalating costs and the sustainability of such spending, the analysts argue that this acceleration is not a sign of a coming slowdown, but rather a signal that the AI investment cycle is still in full force. “We would expect the other labs to continue to keep their foot on the gas,” Sandler and his team wrote. “And hyperscalers are likely to keep their spending levels up, despite concerns.” The findings suggest that OpenAI’s success is not just a company milestone—it’s a catalyst for broader industry momentum, reinforcing confidence in the long-term trajectory of AI innovation and infrastructure investment.