AI-Generated Simulation Warns Tokyo of Mount Fuji Eruption, Sparking Preparedness and Anxiety

Mount Fuji, which has not erupted since 1707, remains a dormant but active volcano, and Japanese authorities are using advanced AI and computer simulations to prepare the nation for a potential future eruption. On the occasion of Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Day, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released a series of realistic AI-generated videos depicting a violent eruption of the iconic peak, aimed at raising awareness among the 37 million people living in the greater Tokyo area. The simulation shows how volcanic ash could blanket central Tokyo—about 100 kilometers (60 miles) away—within hours of an eruption. The video illustrates widespread disruption: transportation networks paralyzed, power outages, food supply chains broken, and long-term respiratory health risks due to ash exposure. It concludes with a call to action: “We need to arm ourselves with facts and prepare for disaster in our daily lives,” showing a family stocking up on canned food and assembling a first-aid kit. While the Tokyo government stressed there are currently no signs of an imminent eruption, it emphasized that the simulation is designed to help residents understand the risks and take proactive steps. “The simulation is not a prediction, but a tool to equip people with accurate knowledge and practical preparedness measures,” officials said. Despite the official messaging, the release of the videos has sparked concern and confusion among some residents. Shinichiro Kariya, a 57-year-old hospital employee, questioned why new details—such as projections of 10 centimeters of ash falling in Tokyo—were being shared now. “Are there really new signs? Why all this sudden focus?” he asked. Hiromi Ooki, a resident of Mishima City with a clear view of Fuji, said she planned to purchase emergency supplies immediately. “Nature’s power is so immense that maybe it’s better if it scares us a little—just enough to stay ready,” she said. Officials from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and Japan’s Cabinet Office Disaster Prevention Division reported no formal complaints from residents. University of Tokyo risk communication expert Naoya Sekiya noted that scenario modeling for volcanic eruptions and earthquakes has long been part of Japan’s disaster planning. “There’s no particular significance to the timing of this release,” he said. “It’s part of ongoing efforts to keep the public informed and prepared.” Japan’s vulnerability to natural disasters is well known. The country lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, home to about 111 of the world’s roughly 1,500 active volcanoes. In August 2023, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first-ever “megaquake advisory” after a major quake hit off Kyushu’s coast. Though Fuji historically erupted roughly every 30 years, its current dormancy has lasted over 300 years—longer than any previous period in recorded history. As such, officials stress that while the risk is low, the potential consequences are severe, making preparedness essential.