CEOs Boost AI Investment Confidence, Anticipate Major Workforce Shifts Amid Rapid Technological Change

CEOs across the United States are showing significantly increased confidence that their investments in artificial intelligence will deliver returns, according to a new survey by KPMG US. Tim Walsh, KPMG’s US chair and CEO, said the shift in sentiment marks a dramatic reversal from just a year ago, describing it as a move "completely to the other extreme." The survey, which included 400 senior executives from large US companies, found that nearly 70% of CEOs now expect to see a return on their AI investments within one to three years—a sharp increase from only 21% in 2024. Even more striking, about 20% now anticipate returns within six months to a year, up from just 1% the previous year. The data was collected between early August and mid-September. Walsh attributes this surge in optimism to the rapid pace of AI advancements, particularly the rise of AI agents capable of performing tasks traditionally done by humans. He noted that the technology is no longer just a futuristic concept but a present-day reality reshaping business operations. One emerging trend highlighted in the survey is the expectation that corporate structures will evolve into an "hourglass" shape—larger at the top and bottom, with a thinner middle layer. This reflects the potential displacement of mid-level roles, which are often more routine and repetitive, while leadership and frontline roles may grow in importance. Walsh acknowledged that while the traditional pyramid structure remains dominant for now, the long-term shift could be significant. He emphasized that the impact of AI on jobs is still uncertain. While many leaders are concerned about automation replacing workers, Walsh believes the outcome will not be mass job loss but rather a need for workforce reskilling. “It’s not a get rid of — it is a retrain exercise,” he said. His vision for responsible leadership involves helping employees transition into new roles as AI takes over certain tasks. The survey also revealed that 86% of CEOs expect AI agents to become full team members within the next year, and about one-third plan to reduce staff in some areas over the next two to five years due to automation. However, Walsh stressed that AI agents will still require human oversight, meaning that new skills in managing and collaborating with AI will be essential. Beyond AI, CEOs are grappling with other pressures, including the impact of tariffs on supply chains. Nearly 90% said tariffs will significantly affect their operations over the next three years, with most planning to raise prices to offset costs. Walsh, who took the helm at KPMG US in July, said that the prevailing mood among executives is one of urgency. They are focused on adapting quickly to a landscape defined by constant change and uncertainty. “The conversation I’m having with CEOs is not about whether change will happen, but how fast and how to navigate it,” he said. In this environment, agility and preparedness are key.