AI Vibe Coding Tools See Traffic Drop After Summer Surge, Raising Questions on Long-Term Viability

The buzz around AI-powered "vibe coding" tools—platforms that let users build websites and apps with simple text prompts—appears to be cooling after a summer surge. New research from Barclays reveals a notable decline in traffic to leading services like Lovable, Vercel’s v0, Bolt.new, and Replit, following a sharp rise earlier in the year. Google Trends data analyzed by Barclays shows a clear pattern: interest spiked in the spring and early summer, peaking in June and July, before tapering off. Similar trends emerge from SimilarWeb data, which tracks user engagement across websites. The drop raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of these startups, many of which have touted explosive annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth. Barclays analysts caution that much of this growth may be driven by short-term, month-to-month subscribers who are quick to sign up but just as quick to leave. This raises questions about the underlying economics of these platforms. “This waning traffic begs the question on whether app/site vibe coding has peaked out already or has just had a bit of a lull before interest ramps up,” the analysts wrote. The issue is compounded by the rise of “inference whales”—heavy users who generate massive AI compute costs. These users, often testing and iterating rapidly, have forced startups to raise prices and impose usage limits to avoid financial losses. While these changes help protect margins, they can also hurt user growth and retention. Eric Simons, CEO of Bolt.new, confirmed that churn rates across the sector are high. “This is the problem across all these companies right now. The churn rate for everyone is really high. You have to build a retentive business,” he said. In response, Bolt.new recently launched updated features and a revised subscription model designed to increase user stickiness. Despite the slowdown, experts say vibe coding isn’t fading. These tools remain popular with AI-native early adopters who use them to rapidly prototype ideas. However, many hit limitations when moving beyond basic functionality—especially when the code becomes complex or requires fine-tuning. The final 5% of polish, often needed for production-ready apps, remains a hurdle for non-technical users. Meanwhile, legacy players are watching closely. Wix acquired Base44, an AI-native site builder, to expand its reach. GoDaddy and others are also exploring the space. Barclays notes that everyday consumers are still in the early stages of experimenting with AI chat interfaces like ChatGPT, let alone adopting more advanced vibe coding tools. While vibe coding may not replace traditional web development anytime soon, it’s far from dead. The technology is still evolving, and with continued refinement, it could become a mainstream tool by 2026. For now, the market is shifting from hype to hard work—proving that building a sustainable AI product requires more than just a catchy prompt.